«
»




Feb

19

Iran — Very Close to Going Nuclear?

Posted By: 'Okie' | 12:33 pm — 2/19/2006 | Comments Off See comments below:

[h/t: Hugh Hewitt, Cheat Seeking Missiles, Powerline]

The evidence is starting to pile up, suggesting that Iran is either very close to having nuclear weapons, or already has them and is looking for a religious excuse to use them. MEMRI, the Middle East Media Research Institute wrote this on 2/16:

“The spiritual leaders of the ultra-conservatives [in Iran] have accepted the use of nuclear weapons as lawful in the eyes of shari’a. Mohsen Gharavian, a disciple of [Ayatollah] Mesbah Yazdi [who is Iranian President Ahmadinejad's spiritual mentor], has spoken for the first time of using nuclear weapons as a counter-measure. He stated that ‘in terms of shari’a, it all depends on the goal.’

If memory serves me correctly, Iran President Ahmadinejad’s stated goals are to wipe Israel off the map and to destroy America. To achieve those, having nukes wouldn’t hurt!

“Gharavian’s [a disciple of Ahmadinejad's spiritual mentor, Ahmadinejad's spiritual mentor, Mesbah Yazdi] statement is the first public statement by the Mesbah Yazdi group on the nuclear issue. Until now, none of the top-ranking religious [leaders] have authorized, on religious grounds, the use of nuclear weapons. But now it seems that the ultra-[conservatives] in Iran have launched a new effort to prepare the religious grounds for use of these weapons…”

No reason to prep the mindset unless you plan to do the deed. How fast they proceed with the pre-strike spin should give us some clue as to whether they will have the nukes soon, or already have them now.

(…) Now all eyes are on the Islamic Republic, and everyone is talking about the danger it [poses]. Two weeks ago, the strategy of assaulting [foreign] embassies was formed as well. America regards Iran and Syria as being behind the recent violent incidents, including the setting fire to embassies in Islamic countries. Mr. Ahmadinejad has managed to take the place of bin Laden…”

Ahmadinejad has managed to get himself firmly planted in the cross hairs of the West. That boy’s got targets painted all over him. Is anyone in the West ready, willing and able to take that target out? Actually that’s more complicated than one would wish, especially if the nukes already exist.

Scott Johnson at Powerline states:

On the last subject, Michael Ledeen has been a close student of Iran for roughly the past 25 years. In his most recent NRO column, Ledeen observes: “When the French announced that the Iranian nuclear program was undoubtedly designed to produce weapons, Tehran demanded an apology. Above all, there is no longer any pretense of cooperation with the Big Three negotiators on the nuclear program. This suggests that the mullahs do indeed believe they have acquired nuclear weapons…”


Laer points out this:

We are in a race then. The finish line might be April 8. Can the sick and sickening regime last until then and deploy its nuke, forever changing world history, or will world history catch up with it, and its divided house tumble into chaos?

Odds are with the mullahs, because time is so short. That means our efforts to sow discord and encourage uprisings need to be redoubled.

Over at National Review Online, Michael Ledeen’s analysis of the Iranian Mullah’s assessment of U.S. and the Western World’s resolve, he provides a list of probable assumptions that Iran would make — the top three don’t bode well, and the rest just make the situation seem more dour.

• The weakness of the Bush administration is notable. Recent public opinion polls show the country seriously divided, and the top Iranian experts on North America have concluded that the president is paralyzed, unable to make any tough decision (and hence unable to order an attack against Iran);

• 2006 is an election year, and even some Republicans are distancing themselves from Bush, weakening the White House even further;

• Israel is facing the darkest moment in its history (remember that this conversation took place before Sharon’s stroke). Likud is divided, Netanyahu is openly against Sharon, and the Labor party has lost its old guard. No strong government is possible (and hence Israel is similarly unable to order an attack against Iran). Therefore this is a moment for Iran to take maximum advantage[.]

Although this list is depressing, Ledeen does see some positives, at least in the reactions of the Bush administration and some European nations to Iran’s current chest thumping.

And indeed, after years of dithering, we now have the first encouraging signs that this administration is inclined to support revolution in Iran. Secretary of State Rice, after her laudable reform of the Foreign Service, has now asked Congress for an additional $75 million to advance the cause of freedom in Iran.
(…)
It’s a small and long overdue step forward, to be sure, but great journeys sometimes begin slowly and uncertainly. The great thing is that, after years of empty rhetoric, stalled internal debates, and the paralysis so dear to Khamenei’s heart, we have finally gotten started. Will it succeed? Do the tens of millions of Iranians who rightly hate their rulers have the stomach, the imagination, and the discipline to organize the downfall of the regime?

There’s a 64-dollar question for you. The flip side of that is, will the Left in America and in Europe support us as we support the Iranian opposition? Considering that suicidal appeasement is their status quo, I don’t think that I like the most likely answer to that one — nope, not at all. (db)

Technorati Tags: , , , , ,

Sphere It
This entry was posted on Sunday, February 19th, 2006 at 12:33 pm and is filed under Iran Threat, Radical Islam. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.  |  Print This Post Print This Post  |  Email This Post Email This Post

Recently Posted:


Comments are closed.